This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds. In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair (no vig) market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point). Start by adding the two probabilities together. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative. There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line. When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. On the very same game, a dime line book like 5Dimes would set the prices at -140 and +130 (140 – 130 = 10). With reduced juice or dime line odds, you’ll get a 10 cent difference. All that this means is that the absolute value of the favorite price is 20 cents more than the underdog price (150 – 130 = 20). In the example above, and at most sportsbooks, you’ll have what is called a 20 cent line. Learn About Baseball Line Prices: Dime Line vs 20 Cent Line A winning wager on Oakland gives you $130 (plus you’ll get back the $100 you bet), while a losing bet on the A’s would only cost you $100. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game.Īs for the A’s, at (+130), that number tells you that you can risk $100 to win $130 on them. This means if the Rangers prevail, you will be paid $100 (plus your initial $150 investment), however, if the Rangers lose, you lose $150. In the example above, the (-150) means that you’d need to risk $150 to win $100 on the Texas Rangers. The easiest way to factor the risk vs reward is in terms of $100. The favorite in the match-up will always be the negative (-) number, while the underdog is always positive (+), just like the numbers work with point spreads. This is an example of what the numbers on a typical ballgame might look like: What oddsmakers do in lieu of the point spread is to weigh the moneyline with heavier odds on the favorite. How to Read MLB Baseball Money Lines – Basic Explanation & Definition A sportsbook is not going to give the same odds to win between a division-leading team with their best starter on the mound and a team at the bottom of the division throwing a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher. It doesn’t matter how many runs a team scores or how many runs they win by, they just need to score more than their opponent. When you wager on the ML, you are picking who you think will win the contest outright. Instead, sportsbooks focus on run totals, the run line, and, most commonly, the money line (ML). The spread becomes just another prediction.īaseball wagering is unique in that there is no traditional point spread set for a ballgame. Instead of judging whether they think the numbers are correct or misguided, people are more likely to simply accept what Vegas has to say. “I didn’t know that USC was looking that good this year.” “Notre Dame is giving up 6 points to USC,” someone might say. The point spread is such a ubiquitous part of sports gambling that it has become fodder for pundits and fans who would never place a wager.
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